We work from the full on-chain Polymarket record — not the public leaderboard — rebuild each wallet's real, realized profit and loss, and follow the handful with the strongest recent track record, surfacing the most compelling positions they're taking each week. It's research to inform your own decisions, not betting tips.
Every free tracker ranks wallets off Polymarket's public leaderboard — and those figures are gamed.
The headline profit figures are gamed — inflated by wash trading and decimal farming, and counted buy-only. A wallet ranked at the top can have a small fraction of the real edge its profile claims.
We ignore the surface and rebuild each wallet's actual realized profit and loss from the full on-chain history, then follow the ones genuinely winning over the recent period. You're tracking verified recent performance, not a gamed leaderboard.
Real calls from the roster — each tagged with the venue where you can act on it, the price the roster entered at, and where it stands now. Every one is logged the moment it's surfaced and scored when the market resolves.
Signals shown under our earlier methodology. Our current floor would exclude two of these.
Four steps, in plain terms.
Every trade ever made on Polymarket — the complete on-chain record — pulled straight from the blockchain, not the surface leaderboard everyone else scrapes.
For each wallet we net every buy against every sell and settle whatever's left at the market's actual result — true profit and loss, not the buy-only shortcut that flatters active traders.
From the rebuilt records we keep wallets with enough resolved positions that a short lucky streak can't qualify. We're currently rebuilding this step. Our earlier screen ranked wallets on return, which we found systematically favours longshot bettors whether or not they have any skill. We're now testing something more basic: whether picking wallets beats simply knowing which prices are worth paying. That test is running, and we'll report the answer.
No single address is a sure thing, so we track a curated set of wallets rather than betting on any one — that's how we stay off any single lucky run. From that roster, the brief surfaces the strongest active positions each week.
Any method tuned on history can be made to look good in hindsight — which is exactly why we don't lead with a backtest. The only test that counts is forward, in public.
So from launch, every position we surface is logged the day we surface it, dated and checkable, and scored when the market actually resolves — no edits, no quiet deletions, no cherry-picking after the fact. The record is thin at first and grows in the open. That's the point: you watch it accumulate in real time rather than taking our word for a number. See the live ledger below.
Our live record is currently negative. We've published what we found and what we're changing. We report the record whatever it says; we don't promise you a number, and we won't sell a subscription until it clears the bar we set in public.
We show you where skilled money is positioned. Every decision you make is your own.
We don't use the scraped leaderboard figures everyone else relies on — we rebuild realized performance from the full chain, because the public numbers are gamed.
It's statistics applied honestly to the complete record. The edge comes from doing that work, and from keeping the roster current as skill fades and emerges.
Each week, the few most compelling positions the skilled roster has taken — what they're backing, the thesis, and where conviction is converging. Every call is tagged with the venue where you can trade it. Delivered to your inbox.
The curated set of wallets with the strongest verified recent records, shown as aliases. You see who's on the roster, what they're holding, and how they've performed — refreshed as the data updates, so faded wallets drop off and newly qualifying ones are added.
An always-on view of the roster's current positions, plus convergence alerts the moment several wallets pile into the same position — so you can track the money between briefs. In active development; founding access locks today's rate and funds the build.
Every call we surface, time-stamped at entry and scored when the market resolves — open for anyone to check. No edits, no hindsight. It's the receipts — and the only proof that counts.
Every call we surface, time-stamped at entry and scored when the market resolves. No edits, no hindsight.
Cumulative return · per $1 deployed
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Positions reflect where wallets with the strongest verified recent records entered. Open positions show masked entry price, side, and venue until the market resolves, comes within 3 days of closing, or 21 days have passed — so nothing here can be front-run. This is information about market positioning, not investment advice, and past positioning does not predict outcomes. The record updates automatically as markets settle.
We set a public threshold before we knew the answer: the strategy has to return more than 10% per position on signals logged before they resolved. It hasn't yet. Until it does, there's nothing to buy.
Join the waitlist and you'll get the weekly brief free, watch the record accumulate, and lock founding pricing when we open.
We'd rather open late than sell a number we can't stand behind.
We analyze the complete trade record, not the surface leaderboard everyone else scrapes.
We test whether a wallet's results beat what the market's own prices said should happen — then correct for the fact that testing many wallets throws up false positives by chance. We're running that test now, and we'll publish what it says either way.
One neutral view, owned by no platform. Polymarket today, Kalshi on the way.
We show you what skilled money is doing. Every decision you make is your own.